Materials ‘green’ premia: Trends and outlook to 2030
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The world faces multifaceted environmental challenges, from water scarcity to the impact of climate change on ecosystems. In industries such as metals and mining, producers are responding by offering low-carbon materials with "green premiums," but market instability threatens their future viability. Meanwhile, the electric vehicle (EV) sector is poised for transformation, with battery prices expected to fall by nearly 50% by 2026, driving broader EV adoption. These shifts coincide with increased opposition from the fossil fuel industry, which has supported anti-protest laws across the U.S. to suppress dissent.
In response to these challenges, grassroots initiatives and traditional knowledge systems are gaining traction. Climate Defiance, for example, employs public shaming to call out "climate criminals" in hopes of driving change, while in Rio de Janeiro, local heroes are successfully reforesting degraded hillsides. The Navajo people in Arizona are restoring arid lands through ancient water-harvesting techniques, providing a model for sustainable adaptation in other drought-prone areas. In extreme climates like the Antarctic and the Sahara Desert, the environmental effects of climate change are also starkly visible: Antarctic vegetation has expanded tenfold in 40 years, while rare floods in the Sahara have transformed barren landscapes.
Singapore presents an example of success in managing environmental resources, particularly water. By embracing efficient use and rainwater capture, the city-state has turned its water scarcity problem into an advantage. These diverse efforts—whether in urban planning, indigenous practices, or corporate green initiatives—showcase how different regions and sectors are adapting to the global climate crisis.
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Numerous producers of metals, plastics, glass, and other materials have launched low CO2 or recovered and recycled offerings for which they have been charging “green premia. Buyers’ demand for green materials is steady or growing, as is their willingness to pay premia to secure those commodities. However uncertain macroeconomic outlook, high energy costs and interest rates, and declining carbon costs, among other factors, have spurred fears of slowing demand for green materials and delays in decarbonization projects. Read more…
Technical advances and lower battery metal prices are driving average battery prices towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars. While solid state batteries and nickel-based batteries are under development, in the short term, lithium will continue to dominate, and the existing 5 battery companies are likely to continue to hold their market share which is currently around 80%. Read more…
Fossil fuel companies in the US are orchestrating a crackdown on civil dissent toward oil and gas exploration often leading to long prison sentences. 45 states have considered new anti-protest legislation since 2017, with 22 critical infrastructure bills enacted in states across the US with anti-protest laws punishing civil disobedience with felonies, fines and long jail sentences. Existing legislation is being misused or new legislation is being brought in to criminalise peaceful acts calling for real action to combat climate change. Read more…
Could publicly shaming the world’s policy makers and fossil fuel industry CEOs help drive positive change? Climate Defiance – a climate activism group, believe it can. Public shaming and disturbing of public appearances of those deemed “climate criminals” can awaken dormant anger in observers and social media users and inspire others to join their movement. Questions surrounding our personal effect on climate change exist in the consciences of people. Climate Defiance believe that confronting influential individuals’ role could bend the status quo for the better. Read more…
Collective action can result in transformative change, but the decision to be apart of it lies on an individual level. This can be seen through the reforestation of the dramatic hills in Rio de Janeiro, which was largely the result of human intervention that started in 1986. Whether the reason for joining the reforestation project was for employment or personal reasons, those involved have felt a great sense of satisfaction having taken part and making a positive difference in recloaking their city. The before and after pictures of the difference made certainly impressed us. Read more…
But in some arid landscapes like the Black Mesa region in Arizona, planting trees isn’t enough to restore and revive the high-desert ecosystem. However, Navajo people living in arid zones have long used structures made of naturally occurring materials to capture water for crops and restore soil. Looking back at our past and ancient techniques used, such as woven brush dams and gabions, can help prepare for the uncertain future that faces us with climate change. It would also give us the opportunity to de-colonise our knowledgebase and re-indigenise. Read more…
A recent study reveals a dramatic increase in vegetation cover across the Antarctic Peninsula, with plant life expanding more than tenfold over the past 40 years. The Antarctic Peninsula, similar to other polar regions, is experiencing warming rates far exceeding the global average. Satellite data from the study shows that vegetation cover increased from less than one square kilometre in 1986 to nearly 12 square kilometres by 2021. Further research is required to understand the specific environmental mechanisms driving the region’s greening. Read more…
Dramatic images show the first floods in the Sahara in half a century, more than years’ worth of rain fell in two days in south-east Morocco, filling up lake that had been dry for decades. Two days of rainfall in September exceeded yearly averages in several areas of south-east Morocco and caused a deluge. As well as small lakes forming, dammed reservoirs in south-east Morocco refilled at record rates in September. The Sahara, which at 9.4m square kilometres is the world’s largest hot desert. Read more…
How Singapore got a grip on water scarcity. Water has influenced war, the economy, and people’s health in Singapore. How has this water-stressed country become a global pioneer in the management of a scarce resource, instead of hard infrastructure, which extracts ever more water from the natural world, Singapore's success to the "soft path" approach (using water efficiently and carefully and stopping water wastage) has paid big dividends. Desalination plants provide up to 25% and Two-thirds of Singapore's surface area is used for rainwater storage. Read more…
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